Migrate North!! Go to Canada!!

It's true!

Other countries may have oil and other things we do not produce much of on our own, but think of this.

We are the worlds bread basket. Agriculture is one of our biggest exports. It is said, if we faultered, 4 million people in Africa would starve.

And on the living off the land thing, I am way ahead of ya sister! You are in Ohio, I will share my bounty with ya!

Maybe he just referred to the Economist magazine, that was burying EU economy in Oct, and Nov. Well, actually it is saying everyone is in the gutters since it published its first issue.

I'm not educated in this, nor do I even have a college degree, but I DO listen to Marketplace on NPR. Right now...there is a LOT of money sitting on the sidelines, anticipating, waiting, guessing at THE BOTTOM. When this money comes back in it will go to commodities first which should spike oil back to 75-85 dollars/barrel (where it belongs). The next big buying frenzy will be in commercial real estate, then finally futures, equities, and securities. The problem is...deflation. Deflation will keep the first wave of money sitting on the sidelines waiting for "THE BOTTOM".
A couple of considerations.

Right now, as we speak, the Chinese sit on enough dollars (and debt) to recapitalize almost all of the failing banks worldwide. So why aren't they moving? Because the Chinese political system is a Dinosaur, and dinosaurs don't take risks, even when such a risk is THE only thing that could possibly save their own economy and ensure their political survival. Eventually, when on the brink of political and social collapse, they will open the dollar spigot and flood the world with dollars, which could lead to disastrous devaluation of the dollar right at the time that the world economy is starting to turn around. The Chinese are in a unique situation, to expand its economy further it must allow its people to become wealthy, but allowing its people to become wealthy will destroy the political system in power. The question of whether or not the Chinese system will collapse is not a question, the only question is when, how fast, and to how much destruction.

The US car companies.

Chrysler is going to be liquidated, or absorbed into another company. Remember it is owned Cerberus (a private equity company) who picked it up at a fire sale price, and will dump it at a loss at this point.

GM NEEDS to lose weight. Expect Hummer and possibly Saab to be sold, GMC consolidated into Chevy, Buick axed, Pontiac axed, and Saturn...well...this is where they could be creative if they are smart. Saturn is well marketed and positioned to be the ALL Hybrid car company, it wouldn't take a huge effort, and the pay off could be huge. To be profitable they need to cleave by half (at least).

Ford seems to be in the best shape. It has a lot of ready to go small cars in Europe, which could be sold in the US under the Ford name. If there IS a truck war anymore the f series will probably continue to dominate the commercial market. Both Chevy and Ford will benefit from Dodge's demise in this respect.

So what to do with all that excess capacity? and workforce? Retool. Make turbines, make solar collectors, they are heavy industry, they CAN retool. They made tanks in the war, why not make turbines, and green energy products. It will take risk, vision, and government incentives, but people NEED to get it though their heads that the car companies can NOT operate as overweight behemoths in the new economy
and be profitable.

Having nothing to do with the economy, I'm all about THE BOTTOM.

My completely common-sense view of the economy (and the stock market) is that this "recession" is entirely man-made. Stocks don't tank on their own, people sell, they start to fall, and squeamish people sell. Stocks fall further, then EVERYONE starts to sell.

Company A's stockholders make less than expected. Company A lays off workers to keep costs down and dividends high. Company A's workers can no longer afford to buy things made by Company B, so Company B lays off. Company A and Company B employees can no longer afford to buy things from Company C, D, E & F... and so on.

Yes, I am oversimplifying (quite a bit) but the fact remains that if everyone was willing to take a small hit on their balance sheet and ride it out, none of the mass layoffs that we are seeing now would be taking place.

Now, the banks and their bad debts...that's another story, but it's all related. Sure, there were a lot of bad loans written, but the panic and layoffs that are happening are making borderline loans into bad loans. People without jobs CAN'T pay bills.

Ummm.

I agree...the recession is man-made...but then, so is the economy. I know what you're saying, and it's true, but it overlooks some of the important aspects of what's happening.

Consumer debt has gotten out of hand. The mortgage issues is HUGE, and it impacts everyone. There's a reason the construction industry is considered a canary for the whole economy, and that's part of the problem. Our economy should be based on a stable point, but it's not considered healthy unless it's expanding. So what happens is that the market expands and expands and expands, until it's beyond what can be supported given the current population, and then is collapses back to a stable point. The collapse and recovery back to a growth cycle can be rough, and that's what we're riding out right now.

-How long do you think this current recession will last? Will it become a depression?

I think this current recession will last until Obamas term as president is over or until we elect a newer president who has a better understanding of our screwed up economy. There is no doubt that the redistribution of middle class taxes going to to the lower class (whom are all on well fair and cannot get jobs) will cause another depression.

-Do you think we've hit the bottom yet?

No, we have not hit the bottom until Obama becomes President of the U.S. We are doing bad as it is, but when the redistribution begins, we will most definitely hit rock bottom.

I think this crisis might actually highlight some of the problems that we've created with constant growth of the economies around the world as enviromental issues etc.

Since 1998 we've (the world) the growth in our economies has increased by 50% and I don't remember the ninties as being too horrible.

watched a program on pbs the other night. no predictions just a very good education about what got us (and the world) here.

It's called "The Ascent of Money"

Suze Orman, and I have to say she is one smart lady, said the economy will not rebound until around 2015.

Depression? Who knows. Compared to last depression? I think things leading up to this are alot different to what lead up to that depression.

I'm just holding my breath and crossing my fingers. So far it hasn't effected me substantially.

twhat? What are you calling middle class? Lower class? My personal definition of middle class is 50,000-125,000 for a family of 4, upper middle class 125,000-250,000, rich at 250,000-400,000 and stupid rich there and above. I'd say lower middle class for a family of 4 comes in at less than 50,000 and more than 30,000. Now the federal government likes to make a distinction of "poverty" for a family of 4 at 21,200 dollars but I'd say if you are making less than 30 you are having a lot of trouble making ends meet, even with with EIC.

Honestly, you can't really worry because it cannot be any worse than it has been in the past couple of months. You can't do a worse job the President Bush did.

Yes, come, you are welcomed! Our GDP is going probably to minus too, but at least we have free health care .)

See, this is part of the problem. Too many people think the President has an effect on the economy. He doesn't. He won't. He can't. It's ridiculous to blame or praise the economy on a President.

Befor the Panic of 1873, the industrialized world economy was very free, had very little regulation and except for a few exceptions such as the US, most places did not have a lot of things which would restrict free trade. The Panic of 1873 had a serious impact on many nations and resembles this economic rough spot more than the Depression of 1929. 1929 is more dramatic than 1873, because the political consequences were more dangerous, but if you want to see what many would consider one of the freest markets ever collapse despite their lack of regulation, then maybe look into the Panic of 1873.



Here is a nice article about this, I don't know if anyone posted it on Plime already(I did search btw), if they did, so sorry:





I like this article, but I don't agree with what it says about the economic power shifting. I have read different things about this, and just as I don't believe that the Panic of 1873 shifted the financial center of the economy from central Europe (I don't think that the financial center was ever as present as the article assumes, and anyway, most historians seem to place the start of America becoming a major finacial power on a truly global scale to World War I), and I would not be so bold as to predict that this current economic crisis will leave China and India significantly better of than US and EU.



Looking at some of the posts on this thread, I notice that a lot of people mentioned inflation a few months ago. Isn't it a bit weird that 2008 was on average, the year with the lowest inflation since sometime in the 1950's... some of the media's hot air windbags are now crying "deflation!", so I guess that just goes to show the reliability of either those predictions, the media, or both. I will just wait and see before saying anything about inflation.

I think that statistic is a tragedy. So many nations could be self-sufficient agriculturally, but aren't because crop space is devoted to cash crops like coffee and tobacco instead of food.

Which is why so many regions which boast fertile ground and great growing conditions are forced to import grain/food from elsewhere - the US wouldn't be "the world's breadbasket" if it weren't for their own (and the rest of the developed world's) hunger for cheap luxuries such as coffee and tobacco.

In a perfect world this mess could be restructured, but I don't see that happening. Not now, at least.

Is that so?
I am far from being expert, I am no botanist.
Lets take coffee.
I was under the impression that coffee can be produced only at high altitudes, and on a very specific climate.
Wheat is a low altitude crop with rather different needs as far as climate is concerned. The same goes for corn and potato. Rice needs far more water than coffee. Banana is not good there either. So what could be produced instead of coffee?
Coca, they could produce coca, but how would that solve their problems? I mean we are not talking about replacing one cash crop with an other.