This week's theme for news links is Gadgets. Learn more...
 McCain vs. Obama: Rasmuessen's Most Recent Report
McCain vs. Obama: Rasmuessen's Most Recent Report
When it comes to the economy, 47% of voters trust John McCain more than Barack Obama. Obama is trusted more by 41%. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey also found that, when it comes to the War in Iraq, McCain is trusted more by 49% of voters. Obama is preferred by 37%. McCain has an even larger edge --53% to 31%--on the broader topic of National Security. picked by ImNotBlue 6 months ago
tags McCain Obama Election 2008 survey polls Rasmuessen
-28
 quote edit #1 
  comments (38)  share edit history (1)
< 1 2 >
11
 ieldanth
6 months ago
For a long time, people didn't have that choice. The electors were simply chosen by the states. Likewise, all the people directly voted for in elections were the members of the House of Representatives. The Senate was elected by the state legislatures. Now, the Senate is just the House but with fewer members and longer terms in office.
16
quote #2
3
 Tegan
6 months ago
« Boomshank : Actually, when good* random polls are taken with a large enough sample size they can be surprisingly accurate of the population of a whole. I think the general variance is around 2% 19/20 times, which is really well done.


*that's the tricky bit though - most aren't done to be accurate.
True but this survey was only taken from 800 "Likely Voters" hardly enough to get accurate results, AND it doesn't mention the demographics of the callers.

Bottom line is the survey stinks and is most likely biased.
88
quote #3
9
 JoshSF49
6 months ago
« Tegan : True but this survey was only taken from 800 "Likely Voters" hardly enough to get accurate results, AND it doesn't mention the demographics of the callers.

Bottom line is the survey stinks and is most likely biased.
Actually if you take a statistics course you'd find out that polling even 200 people in a truly random sample will give you pretty accurate results.

With 800 people surveyed, the margin of error is only about 3%. The survey is not biased.
32
quote #4
16
 Boomshan...
6 months ago
« JoshSF49 : Actually if you take a statistics course you'd find out that polling even 300 people in a truly random sample will give you pretty accurate results.

With 800 people surveyed, the margin of error is only about 3%. The survey is not biased.
"The survey is not biased" depends on exactly how the questions were phrased. I suspect they were fairly balanced, but I get the general impression that the questions were right leaning.
63
quote #5
About Plime
Plime is an editable wiki community where users can add and edit weird and interesting links. Users earn karma when other users vote on their actions. The more karma you have, the more power you have at Plime.
11
 ieldanth
6 months ago
« Tegan:True but this survey was only taken from 800 "Likely Voters" hardly enough to get accurate results, AND it doesn't mention the demographics of the callers.

Bottom line is the survey stinks and is most likely biased.
Most polls, as indicated with Boomshank's disclaimer, are rigged to generate a desired outcome, either through selective sampling or leading questions, or both. Their favorite is the presumptive question. Such as:

Do you agree with Obama's stance that we should flee Iraq with our tails between our legs leaving millions of people to die? (y/n)

An extremely exaggerated example, yes, but it gives you a clear view of the effect. Most people would not agree with such a stance even though if you unspin it, it simply means pulling out, to which a much larger percentage would agree.
25
quote #6
9
 JoshSF49
6 months ago
« Boomshank : "The survey is not biased" depends on exactly how the questions were phrased. I suspect they were fairly balanced, but I get the general impression that the questions were right leaning.
But the great thing about Rasmuessen and these other polling companies is that they have history. And that's great, because they can compare it with the same exact phrasing as they did in previous polls and compare it.

Even if this set of questions were right leaning, you would see that McCain has gained on Obama.
32
quote #7
3
 Tegan
6 months ago
« JoshSF49 : Actually if you take a statistics course you'd find out that polling even 200 people in a truly random sample will give you pretty accurate results.

With 800 people surveyed, the margin of error is only about 3%. The survey is not biased.
I took stats, and you're correct, however as ieldanth stated above the questions that are asked AND the demographics of those callers plays a very large part on what type of results you will get.

This is hardly a scientific survey, and therefore should be taken with skepticism.

Personally I dislike both candidates. But would choose Obama over Mccain, the lesser of two evils.
72
quote #8
21
 chinook
6 months ago
« bunnysutra : Maybe there should be an "election 2008" category?

:)
I think Jax wants less categories so Plime stays running smoothly.

Also, that category would be irrelevant in a few months. IMO, politics is fine, and people just need to ignore things they don't want to read.
12
quote #9
21
 chinook
6 months ago
« JoshSF49 : Actually if you take a statistics course you'd find out that polling even 200 people in a truly random sample will give you pretty accurate results.

With 800 people surveyed, the margin of error is only about 3%. The survey is not biased.
You can't prove that the survey wasn't biased. We don't know how the questions were phrased, how the "random callers" were selected and how their voter eligibility was confirmed and how honest those polled actually were.

Actually, if you take a research methods course you'd find out that polling even 200 people in a truly random sample without taking proper precautions such as ensuring your questions aren't biased or difficult to understand, you can get heavily biased results.
66
quote #10
16
 bunnysut...
6 months ago
« chinook : I think Jax wants less categories so Plime stays running smoothly.

Also, that category would be irrelevant in a few months. IMO, politics is fine, and people just need to ignore things they don't want to read.
Oh. Okay. :) *shrugs*

it took me a minute for it to sink in that election posts are being called Obama posts, too. I suppose if you're for or against, it is still corrolated with mr.O
21
quote #11
9
 JoshSF49
6 months ago
« chinook : You can't prove that the survey wasn't biased. We don't know how the questions were phrased, how the "random callers" were selected and how their voter eligibility was confirmed and how honest those polled actually were.

Actually, if you take a research methods course you'd find out that polling even 200 people in a truly random sample without taking proper precautions such as ensuring your questions aren't biased or difficult to understand, you can get heavily biased results.
Well right, and I'm aware of that. But those are mostly in single-instance polls.

With polls such as these, the questions remain the same, and you can chart differences. The change is the thing we should be looking at, not the percentages. It's better to look at change over time instead of just one poll.
32
quote #12
12
 theclans...
6 months ago
« JoshSF49 : Actually if you take a statistics course you'd find out that polling even 200 people in a truly random sample will give you pretty accurate results.
I personally think it is impossible to attain a truly random sample, I NEVER take surveys and I know there are others like me..therefore you can never have a truly random sample.
140
quote #13
16
 Boomshan...
6 months ago
« theclansman : I personally think it is impossible to attain a truly random sample, I NEVER take surveys and I know there are others like me..therefore you can never have a truly random sample.
Ha - Yup. You can never get a good read of that, "I hate polsters" demographic :)
116
quote #14
24
 Alton
6 months ago
If you search Plime for McCain, you come up with 81 articles.

If you search Plime for Obama, you come up with 161 articles.

Obama is clearly the more popular candidate.

:)
110
quote #15
16
 Boomshan...
6 months ago
« Alton : If you search Plime for McCain, you come up with 81 articles.

If you search Plime for Obama, you come up with 161 articles.

Obama is clearly the more popular candidate.

:)
If only there were more Plimates than aging Republicans...
30
quote #16
16
 ImNotBlu...
6 months ago
« Alton:If you search Plime for McCain, you come up with 81 articles.

If you search Plime for Obama, you come up with 161 articles.

Obama is clearly the more popular candidate.

:)
Popularity, and electability are not necessarily one in the same.

Tom Cruise is popular... but won't be elected to anything, anytime soon.

...At least I hope not.
0
quote #17
9
 JoshSF49
6 months ago
« theclansman : I personally think it is impossible to attain a truly random sample, I NEVER take surveys and I know there are others like me..therefore you can never have a truly random sample.
Yeah I agree.

But that's a whole 'nother issue. But these are random enough.
0
quote #18
10
 shep182
6 months ago
« ImNotBlue : Popularity, and electability are not necessarily one in the same.

Tom Cruise is popular... but won't be elected to anything, anytime soon.

...At least I hope not.
We should tell that to the people in California who didn't vote for Schwartzen... swartzen... for Arnie...
21
quote #19
+ add a comment
< 1 2 >

copyright Worth1000, LLC